Okay, here's my prediction for the US Presidential contest next year. Mitt Romney versus Hillary Clinton.
(**********)
I think, come next November, Hillary Clinton will just edge out Mitt Romney but it'll be close. There'll be a record low turn-out of 45 per cent of the vote. Clinton might squeeze in but, my looney prediction is that the Democrats will lose control of the Senate and, possibly, the House of Representatives too.
Yes, George W. Bush is a fucking disappointment. But, the Democrat controlled Congress is even more of a fucking disappointment as reflected in the polls which show that even more USAites disapprove of the Senate and House of Representatives (what do they do exactly?) then they do of their President. You've got Nancy Pelosi and that guy in the Senate, something Reid, they do nothing but bow to the President. What did we have this year? The USA Patriot Act was it called? Allowing a suspension of Habeas Corpus. And other matters like rendition, illegal wire-taping and all that stuff to do with a symptoms of a pre-fascist society. What have the Democrats done there in Congress to put a stop to George W. Bush's warmongering at home and abroad? Very little, so far as I can tell. Comedian, Jon Stewart, called the Democrats in Congress a "bunch of pussies". I call them a fucking disappointment. By failing to stand up to this President, the Democrats give him carte blanche to do as he pleases. I read recently that documents have been made public that reveal that in 1950, J Edgar Hoover, who if I recall correctly was head of the CIA (or was it FBI) can't remember, asked the then-President Harry S. Truman, in all confidentiality, to ask him to suspend Habeas Corpus for an estimated 12,000 "disloyal" Americans. He had compiled a database. He wanted to arrest them. I figure Harry S. Truman said "No". But, it has occurred to me. A Democracy. Can it really come under assault by fascism and fascist forces (*). For example, under the stress of an unrealistic foreign policy, such as the one the USA pursues across the world, can a Democracy like that in the USA really collapse, a Democracy that has been intact and has evolved since the foundation of the country. Yes, of course, I should add here, that women didn't have the vote until 1919, as I recall, and African Americans, throughout the country, didn't enjoy the benefits of this "Democracy" for many a year. But, anyway. Let's take a look at this unrealistic foreign policy that the USA is pursuing. My summary of it is, "We own the fucking planet". "We won't sign multilateral agreements" (**). "We want to spread "Freedom" and "Democracy" across the World". And, finally, "We're better than anyone else and yes, we are fucking cranky, what are you going to do about it?". Is this a sustainable foreign policy? I don't know. I don't think so. I think this is a foreign policy aheading for disaster.
For me, the world's most dangerous trouble spot is not Iraq, or even Pakistan. The world's most dangerous trouble spot is Taiwan. Think about this. You have the Neo-Conservatives who control the Government in Washington. For years, they have told us that Al Qaeda is the real threat to global peace and security. In the wake of 9/11, the people of the USA were compliant, granting their President whatever he wanted. The people could be controlled using the instruments of fear and confusion. When the President wanted to roll the drum-beat of war, in the run-up to the invasion of Iraq in the Spring 2003, he could, and ALL the domestic news networks joined him in his strident militancy, the SAME kind of militancy that Al Qaeda also advocated. Like two kids on the playground having at each other. George W. Bush and Dick Cheney could easily get 80% support in those, the good ole' days, for a UNILATERAL invasion, without UN approval, of Iraq. But times, they are achanging. Now, the boogeyman is Iran and its leader, Mahmoud Admadinejad, and, hey, Georgey boy wants to roll the drum-beat of war again but, this time, he can only get a bare majority of the USA people behind him, about 53%, a bare majority. Gone are the days of 80% to 85% support. And, this is, in spite of, the disappointing equivalance of the major Democrat candidates for President, including Hillary Clinton who supported a war-wongering motion in Congress recently designating the Iranian Republican Guard, or a branch of it was it?, as a Terrorist Organisation. Kinda sounds like a unilateral declaration of war by the United States on Iran to me. But, anyway, let's move on.
I mentioned Taiwan. Here's my theory. The Neo-Cons aren't stupid. They're just thick. Not stupid. They need a new issue to beat the drum-beats of war. Telling the USA people that, you know, a bunch of guys hanging out in caves in the Afghan/Pakistan border, are a real and imminent danger to their livelihoods and security and their lives won't cut it any more. The people of the USA are catching on now. 4 of the "Mainstream Liberal Media" have since 2005, sloughed off Bush Syndrome and have gone back to reporting facts and things happening on the ground (***), you know, doing what they're supposed to do. That is, MSNBC, NBC, CNN and the other one, ah, erm, CBS. Leaving only the Fox Network to continue waging that official Government line that Al Qaeda are the biggest threat to the USA today. In point of fact, the biggest threat to their livelihoods today is their own Government. So, the Neo-Cons needs to find a new issue.
Taiwan will be just the ticket. Let's take this scenario. What if? What if the People's Republic of China were to invade the island of Taiwan? Can it happen? I think so. What if? For me, Taiwan and the Taiwan straits issue is the world's most pressing international problem because the fall-out could be catastrophic. Let's bear in mind, how the US Congress has been approving military loans, last I checked 42 times, to be sent to Taiwan. Okay, strike the 42, I'm not sure on the number. I can tell you this though. REPEATEDLY, and DESPITE, the Taiwanese parliament rejecting each offer. What does that tell you? It tells me the US Congress, even with a Democrat majority, is a war-wongering entity that seeks to promote conflict throughout the world, just like the USA is doing in Iraq, where the USA is funding and financing rival Sunni and Shiite groups who, in turn, are fighting a vicious civil war with one another, in the haze of which, the most appalling atrocities are being perpetrated against the most vulnerable in society. Religionists, eh. They sound like Fascists and Cowards to me. But, anyway. The USA has a huge military/industrial complex. It needs to be paired back. But, in a way, it's like a cancer, a malignant cancer, that has a tendency to grow and grow. It feeds itself. Pairing it back will take political courage and, to be frank, the only US candidate, I see, who has that courage and expresses that courage, at any rate, with honesty and integrity, is Ron Paul, a Republican running for President. He's the only one. I don't agree with much of his foreign policy, such as not participating or participating less in international bodies like the UN and cutting back on Government at home, but, at least, I agree with him when he says what he sees. That is, the USA is an Empire, stop the nonsense, call it what it is.
http://www.xiaoli.cc/video/detail/397/xxctdWzxcI
Here watch this above. For "Lord of the Rings", the first movie. Bilbo has the all-mighty ring of power which has consumed him. He is possessed by it but think he possesses the ring. In fact, the ring controls him and his thoughts and feelings and emotions. He needs to get rid of it and, being a good man, he has promised others that, indeed, he would get rid of it, but he hasn't. He keeps it and keeps it and keeps it. He never keeps his promise to be rid of it. The ring holds him. Bilbo, you need to get rid of the ring. Finally, under the guidance of his wise, Humanoid friend, Gandalf, he lets go of that abomination, that evil thing cast in the fires of Mount Doom (****), and he's rid of it. And, in the end, he turns back to his friend, Gandalf, after he had let go of the ring and says, "I've just thought of a title for my book, "And he lives happily ever after, until the end of his days"".
Yes, Bilbo was right to let go of the ring. By doing so, he could breath again the air like a human being can. And, yes, in that moment, when he dropped the ring, he felt a sense of defeat and resignation and he felt like a failure, but, nonetheless, he did the right thing. And, yes, he will live happily ever after, until the end of his days.
The USA is an Empire. And like all Empires, it will end. The question is how. Harmoniously? So far, I don't see evidence of that with the USA Empire as of 2007. Look at the savage punishment meted out to the good Iraqi people since the USA invasion of 2003. 2 million Iraqis since displaced within their homeland. A further 2 million displaced outside of Iraq, living now in refugee camps in neighbouring countries. A million or so, we will never know the exact number because the invading USA army and administration won't allow such tallies to be taken, a million or so Iraqis dead. What a savage and brutal Empire the USA Empire can be. But, it's nothing new for Empires. In 303AD, the Pagan Emperor Constantinius instituted a most brutal crack-down on Christians throughout the Roman Empire, killing perhaps tens of thousands. Within a few years, the new Emperor, Constantine, had become a Christian and Christianity became the State Religion for the entire Empire to replace the pantheon of pagan Gods and Goddesses so beloved by Constantinius. The USA Empire is coming to an end. Like Bilbo, the USA government has the ring of power, like Bilbo, the USA government, feels "stretched, rather like butter spread over too much bread". Your Empire is coming to an end. And, yet, you still have a choice. Let go of the ring. For fuck's sake. It's simple. As Ron Paul says, get your troops out of the world and take them back to the USA, your homeland. Close down all those bases you have around the world, in Europe, in Asia, in the Middle East. You're not wanted so get out. Stop fooling yourself. How many military installations do you have anyway? I recall Ron Paul saying, like 750 or so. How many troops do you have servicing your military industrial complex? I heard Tim Russert, interviewing Ron Paul recently, say about 572,000, I think the number he said was, or 576,000, whatever. A lot. Take them home. As Ron Paul says, your troops are encouraging conflict, not resolving conflict, of which the most egregious example, is Iraq and Afghanistan.(*****) Al Qaeda? I hear they barely had 200 members at the time of the September 11st attacks in 2001. Since, then courtesy of the world's most powerful man, George W. Bush, pop idol status has been bestowed upon them and now, they are a leading part of the insurgency in countries like Iraq and Afghanistan which no amount of USA military might is going to clamp down upon. End this insanity, George W Bush, and take all the troops home. Military supremacy doesn't resolve conflict, it only perpetuates it. (******)
Okay, what was I talking about. Okay. Conflict, War, Hostility and Misunderstanding. Oh, yes, Misunderstanding, if there's anything that's going to cause World War 3, it's Misunderstanding. Take China. People in the USA know so little about this country. I read recently that there were as little as 12,000 USAers in the whole of China. The whole of China, whaaa?!!. Let's put that in perspective. In South Korea, there are about 47,000 USAers, excluding Army personnel I think. Many of them, I presume, English language teachers (*******). In Japan, 18,000 USAers. Let's think about that for a second. 47,000 civilian USAers in South Korea, which has a population of 47 million people, like, what is it, 0.1% of its whole population, not a lot, very little in fact, especially so when you consider that there are 300,000,000 people in the USA, a big little country, not comparable in size to the Global Big Countries of India (1.1 billion) or China (1.3 billion), but still, 300 million isn't bad. But, let's pretend for a moment, let's just say that, as a benchmark, 47,000 civilian USAers is a sufficient number, a satisfactory number. Now, let's extrapolate that figure to Japan. A country with a population of 127 million. 3 times the population of South Korea, but with only 18,000 USAers. And, so the percentage of USAers constituting the population of Japan as a whole is so much lower than 0.1% as in south Korea. It'll be more like, oh, I dunno 0.015% or maybe 0.02%. Think about that. Think about how impenetrable the Far East still is to Westerners,even a country like Japan, which has already been developed and a liberal democracy and , relatively, open for a few decades, has so few foreigners from the West there, so few even it would appear in cosmopolitan cities like Tokyo and Osaka. And, so, when we turn to China, the picture gets even bleaker still. China, a population of 1.3 billion people, you, the people of the United States of America, have, what is it, 12,000 in the whole country. That's it? Sighs. Oh, yes, I think there is plenty of scope for misunderstanding between people in the USA, a country, which, let's be frank, faces an internal identity crisis as well as being saddled with an uninspiring, costly Empire, they can't afford. A bare 12,000 people in the whole country. And of those 12,000, how many of those can speak decent passable Chinese and are endeavouring to do more than scratch the surface of this mysterious to our occidental eyes society. Well, I live in China now and I am endeavouring, I think, to do just that. But, it takes time. I've been here for 17 months plus already. But, anyway. 12,000 people, of these, a few might be in e-mail contact or phone contact with Congressmen and women and Senators on the Hill back in Washington educating people in the USA (********) about what's really going on in the People's Republic of China, instead of all the negative Press reports that go around, talking about human rights abuses et cetera et cetera, as if the USA didn't have this sort of problem. Guantanamo Bay, anyone. So,yeah, a lot of ignorance, I think, USA people have of Chinese people and culture and society and people. But, in fairness, I will say, that Chinese people know more about the USA than USA people know about China. But,anyway. I will add the proviso that my 12,000 figure for all the USA people in the whole of China is probably on the downside of things, by how much I don't know, and, I will also say that, yes, China is opening up to the rest of the world and more and more USAers and other foreigners are going to China and learning about China every year. Around the world, Confucius Centers are opening up so that people can learn more about China, its language and culture, before actually going there. That's great. But, still, there's a long way to go. I think most Chinese people and the Chinese leadership will agree with me there.
But, yes, I have my worries and I write this piece because I want to articulate to you what my worries are. [sighs]. The neo-cons are war-mongers. They have a vested interest in keeping the bloated military industrial complex in the USA, well, bloated. And, Taiwan, an invasion of Taiwan by the People's Republic of China, if that were to happen, would be an excuse for them to beat the drums of war again, to decree a new Cold War, a new war for the spread of "Freedom" and "Democracy" and military expenditure, which I think now, is about 750 billion dollars a year, will hit the roof and break the one trillion dollar year a mark. [sighs]. Anyway, to be honest with you, I hadn't really planned on talking about my thoughts on the Taiwan issue on this post. But, I do want to. Talking, even my own humble contribution on my blog, is a modest and constructive way to resolve problems. But, if you think, my blogging here about it or other issues, is merely a means for me to air my prejudices, that's okay. You're entitled to your opinion. All I'm saying is, let's not let fear win. Let's let understanding win.
It's time for a global debate. (*********) In the USA, I see a lot of phoney debates. You know, I'm not from the USA. I'm from Ireland. Since this summer, I wanted to learn more about USA society aside from the glitz and glamour of their movies and movie stars. I wanted to study something about the hard underbelly of USA society. This summer, I was watching a Youtube video of Michael Moore being interviewed by Wolf Blitzer on CNN about his recently released movie, "Sicko" and it was entertaining to watch and listen to. Michael Moore was real indignant about the reporter guy (not Blitzer, another guy) who had just dissed his movie. But, anyway, from there, I visited Michael Moore's website and from there, I stumbled upon http://www.crooksandliars.com and I've been going there 3 or 4 times a day. Very engaging. A Progressive website. I have to learn the new political terminology that is used in the USA but we don't use in the Republic of Ireland or Britain. Anyway, I've learned about new media personalities, new to me, like Keith Olbermann, Bill O'Reilly, Dobbs and so on. You know, I've learned that the USA is more than just celebrities like Tom Cruise, you have serious people there too who don't scream like Wacko Jacko.. So, since this summer, I have been learning about this sober underbelly of USA society. And, frankly, it's intriguing. Of course, you have the US Presidential Primary Process going on too and that also engages my attention. I guess this long and involved Primary Season is a good one (***********) and people really do blog intensely on the issues such as John Amato at Crooks and Liars. That's great and amazing and inspiring. People are waking up to the rubbish they are being fed by their Government. And, I'm learning to, as an outsider.
But, you know, anyway, for me, Taiwan is the world's most dangerous trouble spot, not Iraq (the third most dangerous trouble spot) or Pakistan (the second most dangerous trouble spot (but if you're from India, I perfectly understand that you think Pakistan is the number one trouble spot and you're right!!.) But, really, in terms of the potential damage this will cause to the USA-China relationship, in terms of the fallout that a Taiwan straits conflict will cause (China, in my opinion, now possesses the overwhelming military force to conquer the island), in terms of the fact, that the USA is a considerable World Power if not a superpower, certainly in terms of military expenditure it is a superpower and China, as the next Superpower and rising Military Power, I think that, on a global basis, Taiwan is the world's top trouble spot. It could trigger a new cold war and a sustained cold war and corresponding arms race. But, again, the candidates for US President are blind to that. They're all focused on the Middle East.. Even Mike Gravel and Dennis Kucinich on the Democrat side. And, of course,that "Liberal Media" may have something to do with that too. We should be dealing with the Taiwanese crisis, not sweeping it under the carpet.
I've written enough for today and I am sure I will return to these issues in the future. Thanks for reading. This article is too fucking long for me to proof read.(************)
Paul Carr
(*) Both from within and from without.
(**)"We won't obey multilateral agreements we signed up to previously."
(***) Such as places like Iraq and Afghanistan. Abu Ghraib and all that.
(****) Oh, let's not forget the "evil-doer", Sauron.
(*****). Oh, I want to mention at this juncture, the Korean Peninsula!!. Where I think, the USA has something like 30,000 troops stationed, maybe more. As Ron Paul pointed out, keeping those troops there is postponing a final peace settlement in the region and has been undermining peace and stability efforts in the region for many a year. Of course, the negative impact of this US occupation of military bases in the region, isn't as obvious as in Iraq and Afghanistan where we have the actual drama of war (*************) but, nonetheless, this negative impact is just as real. No final resolution of conflict there yet were they would be, if the USA would only just dismantle its Empire there in Japan and Korea too. Oh, and I must mention here now, the sense of embarrassment and shame I felt, reading a story recently on yahoo about a Japanese women taking 4, I think it was 4 USA service men, to court for gang-raping her on the island of Okinawa, I think, where the USA have a large military base. She lived beside the Military base. Embarrassing and shameful. Japan and South Korea are Democracies. Why continue to occupy these countries? It's 2007, not 1945. Time has moved on. The USA Government should recognise this fact and also move on, and, therefore, get out.
(******) By citing the Lord of the Rings in this post, I'm betraying to you my belief, that even the worst of men and women can be redeemed. I still hope and pray that George W. Bush, will have a change of heart and do something new. You are the most powerful man in the world. Time for new thinking. I can't relate with you, Mr Bush. I'm sorry. And, yet, I must confess, in 2000, I egged on for you in that year's Presidential Election against "Gore the Bore". I wanted you to win, I wanted you to do your father proud. It was kinda like a Soap Opera, that Presidential Election was to me. And, yeah, back in those days, I was younger, 25 or 26, and kinda stupid, you know, like one of Bill Maher's "Pinheads", following other pinheads like Russ Limbaugh and Bill O'Reilly, even if back in 2000, I had never heard of them because I wasn't really engaged in USA politics apart from what I read in Irish and British newspapers and media which wasn't much. I was following the Tom Cruise/Wacko Jacko USA culture instead. I believe that every person has it in them, even George W. Bush, no matter how much he is demonized by the Media or some media, can do the right thing. George W. Bush, do the right thing. Listen to your heart. Get out of Iraq and Afghanistan. Stop the murder of innocent Iraqis and Afghanis. Okay, your troops may not be directly involved in the murder of these people (**************) but your troops are complicit in it.. Let go of the fantasy that you are helping. When, in fact, you only make things worse. Remove the screen from your eyes. Let go of this "Alice through the Looking Glass" conception of the World around you.
(*******) They're well paid.
(********) And, Powerful people in Congress. Recently the Dalai Lama gave a speech to a joint session of Congress. One and half hours long. John Kerry was there, an eminent US Democrat. I wonder what the Dalai Lama said. Did he actually educate the people there, including the US President, about Tibet and China? Did he, for example, tell the assembled people that Tibetans are, in fact, only the 9th largest minority in China as a whole? Did he tell, the assembled crowd, starved probably as they are of information about China as a whole, of which Tibet is a part, that there are 4 times more Tibetans living in neighbouring Qinghai province than there are in Tibet?
(*********). One real global debate is on the issue of the environment. As Al Gore and others are pursuing. Fair play to them. But, it's only one example of a global debate. For me, another real global debate is on the issue of language. The world is becoming smaller and smaller. We need a world language. And, English won't be it. Neither will Chinese. I think we will need to construct a new language. We need to get the world's foremost linguistic experts together, put them in a room and give them a maximum of a year, to bang out a new global language and script for the rest of the world. Of course, there needs to be the political initiative for this to happen. The USA Government can participate on that. Perhaps, after the first 3 months, there will need to be a political meeting of political heads to discuss the fundamental nature of the world language, for example, what kind of script will it use, phonetic, pictographic, syllable based and so on, what kind of oral language will it be, tonal, agglutinative and so on. With the political will, it can be done. Let's just stop the phoney debates first please. Al Qaeda?! Pleassssee.. Come on. Men hanging out in caves. Iraq and Afghanistan and Pakistan, it seems to me, dominates the media in the USA and other countriess media too perhaps. What about South and Central America, what about India, what about sub-Saharan Africa? To a lesser extent, also the Far-East. Perhaps, this is changing though. I am pleasantly surprised to read some stories breaking through on yahoo, which I try to read every day, from and about China, usually from Beijing and Shanghai and the big cities. But, anyway. Much of the rest of the world might as well not exist. For example, in Brazil, wasn't there this brutal Government or Province sponsored crack-down on drug dealers recently that resulted in the deaths of tens of people, if not hundreds? (***************) I didn't see much of that reported. Anyway, going back to a real global debate, yeah, we need to discuss real issues. The Environment is one. Language is another. World Government is another. Controlling military expenditure with binding global agreements is another, a stronger UN is another, World Democracy is another. Let's dare to dream. Let's dare to take a leap of faith. Stop sitting around with our thumb up our collective arse and not doing anything, screaming, "Al Qaeda" and "We got to fight them over there to stop them from coming over here". I last heard that talk in the school playyard between the bully and the vulnerable child. Let's get real.
(**********). Of course, I will concede that Mitt Romney will more-or-less buy his Party's nomination. I've heard that up to a quarter of his funding so far has come from his own pocket. Oh, it's great to be rich.
(***********). It's also a very good idea.
(************). Well, actually, I did proof read it.
In the end.(*************). And,massacres, and suicide bombings, and killings and displacements (at least in greater numbers than from North Korea)
(**************). Sometimes.
(***************). Mercenaries were used.
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